Preview
The Veikkausliiga regular season will conclude for Ilves with a home match against HJK at Tammela Stadium, which will also mark Ilves 95th anniversary. The hosts will celebrate the occasion in special anniversary jerseys, but there is little to celebrate from a sporting perspective.
Ilves lost 0:1 to VPS in the previous round, confirming that they will continue their campaign in the relegation group. Their ninth-place position is already secured, with eighth-placed Lahti four points ahead.
After missing out on the Championship group, Ilves have also seen significant squad changes. Four players have left the club, including top scorer Kanga (20/10), Riski (11/2), Veteli (7/1) and second goalkeeper Virtanen (5/0). Losing Kanga in particular is a major blow to their attacking potential.
HJK have been heavily criticized by the Finnish football media and understandably so. For the third consecutive season, they have underperformed relative to their expectations and have struggled to produce convincing performances over the full 90 minutes, frequently fading after the break.
However, there are still reasons to back them here. HJK have won two of their last three league matches and remain in contention for third place in the regular season standings. The motivation should therefore be significantly higher than Ilves, who already know their position and have lost several important players.
For me, the main rationale behind this pick is opposing Ilves. Their season has effectively lost its importance, their squad has been weakened and their best goal scorer has departed.